February 2015
There have been no Paul the Octopus or Nelly the Elephant or Big Head fish or anything but almost everybody has been making predictions on this cricket World Cup. Prediction is often short sighted or too random but definitely good fun.I had a chance to see most of the practice games so here’s my take on the strengths and challenges of the different teams.
Australia– everyone’s favorite to win and for good reason. They have such a settled side that the captain could actually sit out. Clarke or Bailey both are experienced. Bowling and fielding is really the strength. Batting in my opinion could potentially be the weaker link. Warner, Finch and Maxwell seem to the key but are all similar type batsman and if they have a collective bad innings, could be tough. Smith’s form hence becomes important and he can’t just afford to have a bad game at the same time as top order. The other challenge is they are in the tougher of the groups with NZ, Sri Lanka and England potential threats. But they look really strong and hence justifiably favorites.
South Africa: People’s favorites again and this time they do look really good. Batting is in the able hands of Amla DeVilliers, Duplessis, Duminy and Miller. Their bowling is perhaps the best in the tournament with Steyn, Morkel, Tahir, Parnell, Philander. They are in the easier of the two groups. Their only challenge again will be temperament and ability to handle the big stage. History is against them and they’d want to destroy the “C” tag once and for all.
India: Wishful thinkers’ favorites and there’s a billion plus of these atleast. The first World Cup in 3 decades without that champion of the World Cups, Sachin Tendulkar, in the side. All 3 departments are facing a challenge. Rahane looked solid in the warm up. Rohit seems to control his instincts. Dhawan will hope to continue the recent form. Kohli will be the key but there is tremendous burden on him. Can he emulate the little master in carrying the burden of batting will be the test. Bowling is pedestrian at best. Dhoni is the key for me. If he rallies the team and bats well, he can control the game. Then he is hard to catch. And I feel he should play more spinners than conventional wisdom would say. He is the only captain in this world cup who has won it before and we always hope he has a rabbit in his hat. As always India go in not on the strength of their team but on the hopes of a billion audience plus the marketers.
New Zealand: Kiwis play well and reach semis in almost every single World Cup. This time they have the team that can go the distance. A decent bowling attack with Boult, Anderson, Mills and Vettori. Spectacular batting till no.7 including McCullum, Anderson, Williamson, Taylor, Ronchi, Elliot. They have the home advantage until and if they reach the final. Their test will be big match temperament. Winning when everybody is expecting you to win is no easy task. Its a huge pressure game and teams have wilted before. But I think they will reach the semis for sure. From there its anyone’s game.
England & SriLanka: I am clubbing them because they have similar issues coming into the series. Their batting is brittle. Bowling is strong on paper but they have failed to deliver losing their opening round of warm up matches. They will need one inspirational performance every game to progress. But on their day they can upset the calculations. I doubt if they will make the semis though.
Pakistan & West Indies: Everything is going awry off the field for both teams. Injuries, problems with board, bowling action suspect removals – they don’t have the mindset or preparation needed for such a tournament. But they are the romantics’ favorites capable of dazzling you on any given day. I confess myself to be one of these romantics sometimes even hoping they will come good. But I don’t think even they would be backing themselves to go beyond quarterfinals at best. I want to watch out for Gayle and Misbah- old warhorses with something to prove and an attitude to suit their respective games. Yasir Shah looks like a good leg spinner to watch out for. Otherwise ordinary squads with ordinary expectations.
Non- Test playing & Associate countries: Both Scotland and Ireland look the typical underdogs who can cause the odd upset. They have both won one of their warm games against expectation and have decent bowling and batting line up. Bangladesh is struggling. UAE and Afghanistan will win hearts with their efforts. Zimbabwe played well to beat Sri Lanka in the warm up but can they sustain the performance levels?
Overall conditions in Australia and small grounds in NZ make for good batting. Hence bowling will be the key. The team that has good bowling resources and a smart captain will do well. The best part about prediction is no one holds you accountable. If it comes right, you are smart, if it doesn’t it was a prediction anyway. So here’s my prediction for semi finalists: aus, south Africa, new zealand, Sri Lanka.
Let the games begin!!
THE CRICKET ROUND UP 